Two games remain for most N.F.L. teams. After a wild Saturday night game between Dallas and Detroit, seven of 14 playoff spots are accounted for, but the No. 1 seeds and several division titles remain up for grabs.
Some teams need to win just one game to make the postseason; others need to win both, or to win both and get help from other outcomes. Below, we’ve created a team-by-team guide for every team not yet eliminated.
Each section describes a team’s postseason probabilities conditional on the results of their next games: if they win both, win one or lose both. All this will point back to our playoff simulator, where you can explore any scenario to your heart’s content.
AFC East
Miami Dolphins (11-4)
Remaining games:
at Ravens (12-3),Bills (9-6)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Wild Card
Current: Div. Champ
The Dolphins have clinched a playoff berth. Their remaining games — against the N.F.L.-leading Ravens (12-3) and the surging Bills (9-6) — will determine whether they are as high as the No. 1 seed or as low as the No. 6 seed.
Two wins guarantees the No. 1 seed, with a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
One win — in either game — would clinch the A.F.C. East, and probably the No. 2 seed.
Two losses would probably mean a wild-card berth, depending on the Bills’ result in their game on Sunday against the Patriots.
Buffalo Bills (9-6)
Remaining games:
Patriots (4-11),at Dolphins (11-4)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Wild Card
The Bills have won three games in a row and now represent the No. 6 seed in the A.F.C. playoff picture. Just one win in their next two games would almost certainly be enough to make the playoffs, but they also have a path to the division title — hosting an outdoor playoff game at Buffalo in January — if they win both games.
If the Bills win against the Patriots (4-11) on Sunday and the Dolphins (11-4) fall to the Ravens (12-3), the Bills-Dolphins matchup in Week 18 will be for the division.
That said, the Bills could still miss the playoffs with a pair of losses.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
Remaining games:
Dolphins (11-4),Steelers (8-7)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Wild Card
Current: Bye
The Ravens, fresh off a convincing victory over the 49ers (11-4), appear to be the best team in the N.F.L. They have clinched a playoff berth.
They face the Dolphins (11-4) on Sunday. If they win, they’ll clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Any Ravens win or a Browns loss in Week 18 would clinch the A.F.C. North.
Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Remaining game:
at Bengals (8-7)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Wild Card
Current: Wild Card
The Browns have won four straight, each of them led by their fourth starting quarterback of the season: Joe Flacco.
They have clinched a playoff berth. Realistically, the Browns are headed for the postseason with a wild-card berth, most likely as the No. 5 seed, visiting the No. 4 seed (probably the Jaguars, Texans or Colts) in the first round.
The Browns can technically still win the division, but they’d need to win their remaining game and hope the Ravens lose both of theirs.
Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
Remaining games:
at Chiefs (9-6),Browns (11-5)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Bengals are on the fringe. After last Saturday’s loss to the Steelers, they will most likely need to win their remaining games, both against tough opponents: the Chiefs and the Browns.
But if they do manage to win those, the Bengals will probably make the playoffs as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
Remaining games:
at Seahawks (8-7),at Ravens (12-3)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
Like the Bengals, the Steelers have a narrow path to the playoffs. Winning their remaining games would very likely be enough to get in. But their season concludes with a game against the A.F.C.-best Ravens (12-3).
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7)
Remaining games:
Panthers (2-13),at Titans (5-10)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Div. Champ
The Jaguars are on top of the A.F.C. South but share their record (8-7) with two other members of their division, the Colts and the Texans.
They’re in good position to make the playoffs, either as division champion or as a wild-card team. Their most important game is their last one, in Week 18, against the Titans (5-10).
They host the team with the worst record in the N.F.L. — the Panthers (2-13) — on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts (8-7)
Remaining games:
Raiders (7-8),Texans (8-7)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Wild Card
The Colts’ loss to the Falcons complicates their playoff path; they now probably need to win their remaining games.
Their matchup with the Texans, in Week 18, is the more important of the two for the Colts. But their Week 17 opponents, the Raiders (7-8), are coming off a surprising win over the Chiefs, and they too will be playing to keep their (much dimmer) playoff hopes alive.
Houston Texans (8-7)
Remaining games:
Titans (5-10),at Colts (8-7)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Texans share the same record — and face the same path, more or less — as two other teams in the A.F.C. South: the Jaguars and the Colts. But they are third in the division (thanks to tiebreakers) and have the slimmest chance at a playoff berth of the three.
Two wins would secure a playoff berth and possibly the division title. One win would probably not be enough.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
Remaining games:
Bengals (8-7),at Chargers (5-10)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Div. Champ
Denver Broncos (7-8)
Remaining games:
Chargers (5-10),at Raiders (7-8)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Out
Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)
Remaining games:
at Colts (8-7),Broncos (7-8)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Raiders’ unlikely win over the Chiefs in Week 16 has brightened their playoff picture. A loss still eliminates them, but two wins would probably put them in the playoffs.
They visit the Colts (8-7) next.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (11-4)
Remaining games:
Cardinals (3-12),at Giants (5-10)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Wild Card
Current: Div. Champ
The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth already; their remaining games will determine whether they win the division (and, possibly, whether they earn a bye week and the No. 1 seed).
The Cowboys’ win over the Lions on Saturday means the N.F.C. East will not be decided until Week 18. If the Eagles win their remaining games — both against teams with losing records — they will win the division. If they win only one, they’ll need the Cowboys (11-5) to lose their last game, against the Giants (5-10).
The Eagles can still get the No. 1 seed. A win this week and a 49ers loss — unlikely as it may be, as they face the Commanders (4-11) — would put the Eagles in position to secure it in Week 18.
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Remaining game:
at Commanders (4-11)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Wild Card
Current: Wild Card
The Cowboys’ wild win on Saturday night over the Lions bolstered their chances of winning the division (they have already clinched a playoff berth). If the Cowboys win at the Commanders, and the Eagles lose either of their two remaining games, the Cowboys will take the division, and likely the No. 2 seed.
For now, the Cowboys remain in contention for the No. 1 seed and the bye week that comes with it. They would need to finish the season with a better record than both the 49ers and Eagles. Not impossible, but not likely.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (11-5)
Remaining game:
Vikings (7-8)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Div. Champ
Current: Div. Champ
Having won the N.F.C. North already, and coming off a heartbreaking loss on Saturday night in Dallas, the Lions seem headed toward the No. 3 seed, hosting the No. 6 seed in the first round.
Green Bay Packers (7-8)
Remaining games:
at Vikings (7-8),Bears (6-9)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Packers, despite their losing record, have a clear path to the playoffs. They simply need to beat two divisional opponents with losing records: the Vikings and the Bears. If they do that, they’ll probably be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, visiting the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the first round.
Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
Remaining games:
Packers (7-8),at Lions (11-5)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Vikings’ path to the playoffs looks a lot like the Packers’: They probably need to win both their remaining games.
Unfortunately, they face a much more challenging schedule than the Packers, as they finish up at Detroit (11-5).
Chicago Bears (6-9)
Remaining games:
Falcons (7-8),at Packers (7-8)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Out
A loss eliminates the Bears.
Even with two wins, they would need a slew of other outcomes to go their way, but the playoffs remain a mathematical possibility.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
Remaining games:
Saints (7-8),at Panthers (2-13)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Div. Champ
The Bucs are on top of the N.F.C. South. A win in either of their next two games clinches the division. If they lose both, they are probably out.
New Orleans Saints (7-8)
Remaining games:
at Buccaneers (8-7),Falcons (7-8)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Saints are in trouble. Even two wins would not make a playoff berth particularly likely. A loss eliminates them.
Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
Remaining games:
at Bears (6-9),at Saints (7-8)
Best possible outcome: Div. Champ
Worst: Out
Current: Out
The Falcons are in the same straits as the Saints, who share their record. They face the Bears (6-9) next.
They could still win the division with an 8-9 record as long as they beat the Saints (7-8) in Week 18, though they’d need the Bucs to lose their remaining games.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (11-4)
Remaining games:
at Commanders (4-11),Rams (8-7)
Best possible outcome: Bye
Worst: Div. Champ
Current: Bye
The 49ers have clinched the N.F.C. West and can do no worse than the No. 3 seed.
They will clinch the No. 1 seed if they win their remaining games. But if they lose even one, they are likely to finish with the No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
Los Angeles Rams (8-7)
Remaining games:
at Giants (5-10),at 49ers (11-4)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Wild Card
The Rams have won five of their last six games and sit as the No. 6 seed, which is probably where they’ll end up.
They probably need to win one of their remaining games to be in the playoffs; two losses would most likely eliminate them. They face the Giants (5-10) next.
Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Remaining games:
Steelers (8-7),at Cardinals (3-12)
Best possible outcome: Wild Card
Worst: Out
Current: Wild Card
The Seahawks occupy the last spot in the N.F.C. playoffs, with a path very similar to the one for the Rams. Even one win in their next two games would probably be enough to secure a berth; two would guarantee it.
Their best-case scenario in Week 17 is a win and a Rams loss.